If the coronavirus becomes seasonal, several periods of social distancing will be necessary.
The results of a Harvard study are confusing. Indeed, social distancing may have to continue until 2022 in the United States. This would bring the coronavirus under permanent control.
WHAT ARE THE CONCLUSIONS OF THE STUDY?
To arrive at these results, a team of Harvard scientists decided to model the pandemic’s trajectory based on existing data. Published in the journal Science, the study has now been made public and many questions about deconfinement are being asked. If the coronavirus becomes a seasonal virus like influenza, it is highly likely that containment periods will be put in place. This is the preferred scenario in the absence of Covid-19 treatments.
These periods would allow hospitals to increase their capacity to be able to care for all patients. It is thus a question of oscillating between confinement and deconfinement until 2022. This solution may allow the progressive immunization of the population, while preventing a new wave of contaminations. It is therefore to be expected that many people will fall ill. Cluster immunity will gradually build up and we will be able to control the virus for good.
WHAT SCENARIO SHOULD WE FOLLOW?
With the little we know about the virus, several hypotheses are emerging. For example, the group of scientists assumes that excessively long periods of social distancing is not the right way to go. According to them, “social distancing was so effective that virtually no population immunity is built up. In other words, the sicker the population gets, the less the virus will be able to circulate because we would be immune. By ‘social distancing’, scientists speak of total isolation or one metre of separation between each person.
In a telephone press conference, Stephen Kissler (one of the authors of the study) said that “a one-time measure of social distancing is unlikely to be enough to keep the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 within the capacity of the US resuscitation services”. But questions remain. We don’t know whether we will develop long or short immunity, or how long the virus will live on objects.
What is certain is that the disappearance of the virus is not going to happen overnight, we will have to face several waves before we get out of it. What do you think of these results?
Source : Science Alert